The preventive measures (drought risk management) that can mitigate drought effects, not only include very low cost compared to indemnity costs, but also lead to reduction of costs that are spending after drought occurrence. According to the importance of drought risk management, besides droughts assessment and prediction of their occurrence probabilities, the study provides measures of drought risk management for mitigating farmers vulnerability in future drought periods and sustainable use of water resources in Golestan province. Since agricultural sector of Gonbad-e-Kavous county has witnessed the most loss in this province (about 900 million U.S dollars in 2007-08 drought year), the present study focuses on this county. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Markov chain method were used to assess and predict the probability of drought occurrence. Also a record of Gonbad rain gauge station in central district of Gonbad-e-Kavous county during 1967-2008 was used. Through the method of Markov chain, the probability of drought occurrence was estimated to be more than the probability of wet years in the long run in this county with high accuracy in the early years of the periods. Thus, practical measures in short, mid and long runs have been presented to deal with drought event and also sustainable use of region water resources. Therefore, it is necessary for regional planners and policymakers, with emphasis on methods of drought risk management, put their efforts to mitigate the effects of this event on agricultural sector and provide needful outline for sustainable use of water resources.

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