Title : ( Vulnerability assessment of wheat and maize production affected by drought and climate change )
Authors: Sarvenaz Farhangfar , Mohammad Bannayan Aval , Hamid Reza Khazaei , Mohammad Mousavi Baygi ,
Full TextAbstract
Agricultural vulnerabilitycanbereferredtothedegreethatagriculturalsystemsmayexperienceharm due toastress.Asimulationstudywasconductedtoassessthevulnerabilityofwheat(irrigatedand rainfed) andmaizeproductionduetodroughtandclimatechangeintheNortheastofIran.UNEPAridity Index(AIU) wascalculatedtomeasuredroughtsituationin five agriculturalcentersincludingBirjand, Bojnourd, Mashhad,SabzevarandTorbatHeydarieh.Projectedchangesinclimatevariablesweresi- mulated bytwoGeneralCirculationModels:HadCM3andIPCM4underthreescenarios(A1B,A2andB1), simulated byLARS-WG.TheCroppingSystemModel(CSM)-CERES-Wheatand(CSM)-CERES-Maizewere used forcropgrowthsimulationunderprojectedclimateconditions.Inordertoquantifythemagnitude of vulnerabilitytovaryingdroughtconditions,vulnerabilitywasconsideredasafunctionofsensitivity, well-being staterelativetoitsdamagethresholdandexposure.Vulnerabilitywascalculatedconsidering severedroughtsintheselectedyearsandtheexpectedvulnerabilityconsideringtheexpectedfrequency of drought.Theresultsshowedthatinallthestudylocationsthewheatandmaizeproductionhavebeen affected extremelybyseveredroughtsduringthebaseperiodandbothcropswereextremelysensitiveto drought. Itwasalsoprojectedthatcropproductionwillbeextremelyvulnerabletoprobabledroughts during theprojectedyearsthesameasthebaseperiod.
Keywords
, Agricultural vulnerability, Climate change, Drought
@article{paperid:1047453,
author = {Farhangfar, Sarvenaz and Bannayan Aval, Mohammad and Khazaei, Hamid Reza and Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad},
title = {Vulnerability assessment of wheat and maize production affected by drought and climate change},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
year = {2015},
volume = {13},
number = {2},
month = {September},
issn = {2212-4209},
pages = {37--51},
numpages = {14},
keywords = {Agricultural vulnerability; Climate change; Drought},
}
%0 Journal Article
%T Vulnerability assessment of wheat and maize production affected by drought and climate change
%A Farhangfar, Sarvenaz
%A Bannayan Aval, Mohammad
%A Khazaei, Hamid Reza
%A Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad
%J International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
%@ 2212-4209
%D 2015
