Title : ( Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran )
Authors: samaneh Ashraf , Amir AghaKouchak , Ali Nazemi , Ali Mirchi , Mojtaba Sadegh , Hamed R. Moftakhari , Elmira Hassanzadeh , Chi-Yuan Miao , Kaveh Madani , Mohammad Mousavi Baygi , Hassan Anjileli , Davood Reza Arab , Hamid Norouzi , Omid Mazdiyasni , Marzi Azarderakhsh , Aneseh Alborzi , Mohammad J. Tourian , Ali Mehran , Alireza Farahmand , Iman Mallakpour ,
Full TextAbstract
By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change on surface water availability in Iran over the twenty-first century. Our findings show that increasing water withdrawal in Iran, due to population growth and increased agricultural activities, has been the main source of historical water stress. Increased levels of water stress across Iran are expected to continue or even worsen over the next decades due to projected variability and change in precipitation combined with heightened water withdrawals due to increasing population and socio-economic activities. The greatest rate of decreased water storage is expected in the Urmia Basin, northwest of Iran, -varying from ~ − 8.3 mm/year in 2010–2039 to ~ − 61.6 mm/year in 2070–2099 compared with an observed rate of 4 mm/year in 1976–2005-. Human activities, however, strongly dominate the effects of precipitation variability and change. Major shifts toward sustainable land and water management are needed to reduce the impacts of water scarcity in the future, particularly in Iran’s heavily stressed basins like Urmia Basin, which feeds the shrinking Lake Urmia.
Keywords
, climate change, human activities, Iran
@article{paperid:1074130,
author = {سمانه اشرف and Amir AghaKouchak and Ali Nazemi and Ali Mirchi and Mojtaba Sadegh and Hamed R. Moftakhari and Elmira Hassanzadeh and -Chi-Yuan Miao and Kaveh Madani and Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad and Hassan Anjileli and Davood Reza Arab and Hamid Norouzi and Omid Mazdiyasni and Marzi Azarderakhsh and Aneseh Alborzi and Mohammad J. Tourian and Ali Mehran and Alireza Farahmand and Iman Mallakpour},
title = {Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran},
journal = {Climatic change},
year = {2019},
volume = {152},
number = {3},
month = {March},
issn = {0165-0009},
pages = {379--391},
numpages = {12},
keywords = {climate change; human activities; Iran},
}
%0 Journal Article
%T Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran
%A سمانه اشرف
%A Amir AghaKouchak
%A Ali Nazemi
%A Ali Mirchi
%A Mojtaba Sadegh
%A Hamed R. Moftakhari
%A Elmira Hassanzadeh
%A -Chi-Yuan Miao
%A Kaveh Madani
%A Mousavi Baygi, Mohammad
%A Hassan Anjileli
%A Davood Reza Arab
%A Hamid Norouzi
%A Omid Mazdiyasni
%A Marzi Azarderakhsh
%A Aneseh Alborzi
%A Mohammad J. Tourian
%A Ali Mehran
%A Alireza Farahmand
%A Iman Mallakpour
%J Climatic change
%@ 0165-0009
%D 2019
