Soil erosion is a complex process with socio-economic and environmental impacts and acts as the main factor in land degradation in arid regions. We evaluated soil erosion risk in Iran\\\'s arid northeast based on the potential and actual soil erosion risks using the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) model in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to estimate the economic burden of soil erosion in the region. Soil erodibility, erosivity, topography, slope, and vegetation cover were used to evaluate actual and potential soil erosion risks. The map of potential soil erosion risk showed that 43.62% and 25.02% of the study area faces with low and moderate erosion risk, respectively. Moreover, 5.22% of the study area has a high-potential soil erosion risk. According to the actual map of soil erosion risk, about 78% of the region is categorized within the risk classes of moderate to high. The output of the model did not significantly differ from the observed conditions at 110 ground control points. Sensitivity analysis showed that potential soil erosion risk was most sensitive to soil texture, slope, and soil depth, and that vegetation factor played a significant role in determining actual soil erosion risk. Comparison of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the study area revealed a 2.57% decrease in vegetation cover during the three years leading to the study (2015–2018). The Mann–Whitney U test (P value = 0.17) confirmed a good match between actual conditions and model predictions. Potential damage and economic impacts from soil erosion to at-risk elements were evaluated at about 6.8 million dollars annually. This study illustrates how the CORINE model can identify areas threatened by soil erosion for management action.

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