In this study, the effects of shocks caused by climate change scenarios (IPCC1, IPCC2, and IPCC3) on Iran’s macroeconomic sectors (agriculture sector value added, industry sector value-added, services sector value added, and total welfare) were studied. For this purpose, required data was gathered from the central bank of Iran, the statistical center of Iran and Iran Meteorological Organization during 1988-2018. Also, for data analyzing the new Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model and Impulse Response Functions (IRF) were applied. Results indicated that climate change reduces the value added of agriculture sector and industry sector while increase the value added of services sector. Also, climate change reduces the total welfare. In addition, between three studied scenarios, IPCC1, IPCC2 and IPCC3 have the highest effect on value added of studied sectors respectively. Finally, according to the negative effects of climate change especially on the agriculture sector, suitable water resources management through increasing water efficiency in the agriculture sector (as the highly consumed sector), applying modern irrigation methods, and evaporate reduction from the dam’s surface was suggested.

Keywords