A statistical study is presented to evaluate the accuracy of nine models that have been proposed in the past to estimate ultimate resistance of plate girders subjected to patch loading. For each model mean errors and standard errors, as well as probability of underestimating or overestimating patch load resistance, are presented and discussed. The models are first calibrated for improving the formulas with an experimental data set collected from the literature. The existing models are thus analyzed by computing design factors associated with a target risk level (probability of exceedance). These models are compared together considering uncertainties in material and geometrical properties. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate the random variables. The statistical parameters of the calibrated models are obtained for various coefficients of variations with and without correlation between the random resistance variables. These probabilistic results are very useful for evaluating stochastic sensitivity of the calibrated models.

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