Title : ( Vulnerability assessment of wheat and maize production affected by drought and climate change )
Authors: Sarvenaz Farhangfar , Mohammad Bannayan Aval , Hamid Reza Khazaei , Mohammad Mousavi Baygi ,
Full TextAbstract
Agricultural vulnerabilitycanbereferredtothedegreethatagriculturalsystemsmayexperienceharm due toastress.Asimulationstudywasconductedtoassessthevulnerabilityofwheat(irrigatedand rainfed) andmaizeproductionduetodroughtandclimatechangeintheNortheastofIran.UNEPAridity Index(AIU) wascalculatedtomeasuredroughtsituationin five agriculturalcentersincludingBirjand, Bojnourd, Mashhad,SabzevarandTorbatHeydarieh.Projectedchangesinclimatevariablesweresi- mulated bytwoGeneralCirculationModels:HadCM3andIPCM4underthreescenarios(A1B,A2andB1), simulated byLARS-WG.TheCroppingSystemModel(CSM)-CERES-Wheatand(CSM)-CERES-Maizewere used forcropgrowthsimulationunderprojectedclimateconditions.Inordertoquantifythemagnitude of vulnerabilitytovaryingdroughtconditions,vulnerabilitywasconsideredasafunctionofsensitivity, well-being staterelativetoitsdamagethresholdandexposure.Vulnerabilitywascalculatedconsidering severedroughtsintheselectedyearsandtheexpectedvulnerabilityconsideringtheexpectedfrequency of drought.Theresultsshowedthatinallthestudylocationsthewheatandmaizeproductionhavebeen affected extremelybyseveredroughtsduringthebaseperiodandbothcropswereextremelysensitiveto drought. Itwasalsoprojectedthatcropproductionwillbeextremelyvulnerabletoprobabledroughts during theprojectedyearsthesameasthebaseperiod.
