Journal of Global Pharma Technology, Volume (12), No (8), Year (2016-12) , Pages (359-370)

Title : ( The Effect of Fluctuations in Climate Parameters on Wheat Market )

Authors: Hakimeh Hatef , Mahmoud Daneshvar Kakhki , Mohammad Reza Kohansal , Mohammad Bannayan Aval , Naser Shahnoushi froshani ,

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The great dependency of agricultural sector on climate conditions and high attribution of this sector to the economy of developing countries shows the importance of agricultural sector and its impressions from climate change phenomenon. One of the important questions that occur in mind is the effect of fluctuations in climate parameters on market of agriculture sector products. Since production in agriculture sector is important because of food provision of society members, studies in this field are so important for policy making and planning aspects. This issue is more important in countries and regions in more vulnerability of climate changes. Therefore, dry and semi-dry climates of Iran and Khorasan Razavi province were mentioned to study the production and demand for strategic product, wheat, by consideration of climate changes condition. To reach this goal, first an index to study climate parameters fluctuations was designed and calculated. Then, wheat economic model was made by aim of reaching balanced price by making supply and demand sides. The demand and supply functions were estimated as panel data for 30 provinces of country in 2005-2015 in Stata software. Then, optimization model was made in GAMS software to reach product equilibrium in the studied region. Results of calculations displayed that permanent risks have a negative and significant effect on product and wheat balanced price in Khorasan Razavi province whose price was obtained 12863 Rial in 2015. It is suggested to policy makers and planners to use simulation of various parts of the model and the obtained results from scenario for prediction in order to select the adapted policies with climate changes or reduce negative effects of this phenomenon in regions such as studied region.


, Price, Permanent risk, Recurrent risk, Partial equilibrium
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author = {Hatef, Hakimeh and Daneshvar Kakhki, Mahmoud and Kohansal, Mohammad Reza and Bannayan Aval, Mohammad and Shahnoushi Froshani, Naser},
title = {The Effect of Fluctuations in Climate Parameters on Wheat Market},
journal = {Journal of Global Pharma Technology},
year = {2016},
volume = {12},
number = {8},
month = {December},
issn = {0975-8542},
pages = {359--370},
numpages = {11},
keywords = {Price; Permanent risk; Recurrent risk; Partial equilibrium},


%0 Journal Article
%T The Effect of Fluctuations in Climate Parameters on Wheat Market
%A Hatef, Hakimeh
%A Daneshvar Kakhki, Mahmoud
%A Kohansal, Mohammad Reza
%A Bannayan Aval, Mohammad
%A Shahnoushi Froshani, Naser
%J Journal of Global Pharma Technology
%@ 0975-8542
%D 2016