European Journal of Operational Research, ( ISI ), Volume (294), No (2), Year (2021-10) , Pages (442-452)

Title : ( Maximizing the expected net present value in a project with uncertain cash flows )

Authors: Mahboobe Peymankar , Morteza Davari , Mohammad Ranjbar ,

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Abstract

This paper considers the problem of maximizing the expected net present value of a project under uncertain cash flows, which are described by a supporting set of discrete scenarios. While cash flows are often considered more or less stable in countries with stable economy, they can be quite uncertain in countries with financial and/or political crisis. In these countries, cash flows may drastically rise after a certain political event or a financial crisis. Therefore, we assume that the price changes may well occur after a predictable time (e.g., an election or the date on which a deal is agreed or broken). Such an assumption has never been made in project scheduling under uncertainty. We propose two integer linear programming (ILP) formulations and develop two-stage stochastic programming approaches that use Benders decomposition to solve the problem efficiently. Since the number of generated scenarios may be large and thus intractable, we also employ a forward scenario reduction technique to construct a rather tractable set of scenarios. Computational results indicate that the developed Benders-based methods outperform the ILP formulations.

Keywords

Project scheduling Net present value Stochastic programming Benders decomposition
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@article{paperid:1084398,
author = {Peymankar, Mahboobe and Morteza Davari and Ranjbar, Mohammad},
title = {Maximizing the expected net present value in a project with uncertain cash flows},
journal = {European Journal of Operational Research},
year = {2021},
volume = {294},
number = {2},
month = {October},
issn = {0377-2217},
pages = {442--452},
numpages = {10},
keywords = {Project scheduling Net present value Stochastic programming Benders decomposition},
}

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%0 Journal Article
%T Maximizing the expected net present value in a project with uncertain cash flows
%A Peymankar, Mahboobe
%A Morteza Davari
%A Ranjbar, Mohammad
%J European Journal of Operational Research
%@ 0377-2217
%D 2021

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