Different regions of Iran are influenced by dust storms since they are located in the arid and semi-arid zone and due to their plain structure, the penetration of different synoptic systems, and adjacency with desert and important dust centers. This research investigates the effect of dust sedimentation on the yield of irrigated and rainfed wheat in four neighbouring provinces and on wheat production in Iran (Khuzestan, Ilam, Kermanshah, and Lorestan). Data are for the crop years from 2011–2012 to 2018–2019. For higher accuracy, the research studies irrigated and rainfed wheat systems separately with the panel model of the Just–Pope function. In the Just–Pope stochastic function, the effects of inputs on two indices of mean yield and yield variance are studied simultaneously. Based on the results, the risk function of irrigated wheat is significantly influenced by the variables of machinery, labour, and dust at the 1% level and by the variables of water and precipitation at the 10% level. The most influential variable in this function is dust (3.03%). In the risk function of rainfed wheat, all variables have a significant impact on production fluctuations at the 1% level. The most influential factor is the temperature (0.86%). Furthermore, the results reveal that the variable of the number of dusty days is significant in the production of irrigated and rainfed wheat at the 15% and 1% levels, respectively. The effect of this variable on rainfed wheat is negative and 0.101%. In this regard, it is necessary to develop dust-specific projects in the agricultural sector and estimate the cost imposed by this phenomenon.

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