Title : ( Modified Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (MCETA) for meteorological time series )
Authors: Fereshteh Modaresi , Ebrahim Asadi Oskouei , Zohreh Janvanshiri , Iman Sardarian Bajgiran ,Access to full-text not allowed by authors
Abstract
Trend analysis of extreme events is an efficient method for assessment of climate change effects on hydro-meteorological variables. However, famous methods like Mann-Kendall test are able to detect only one trend slope for all of data series. The crossing empirical trend analysis (CETA) method, recently presented, can detect trend slope for every risk level of data. The aim of this study is to present a modified methodology for CETA method (MCETA) to strengthen it in the cases with non-monotonic peaks in high and low values of data, or with different trend directions in high and low risk level of data. The MCETA modifies the search ranges of slopes and the location of pivot points of the CETA test. The ability of MCETA compared to CETA and Mann-Kendall tests was assessed for trend analysis of spring rainfall for the period 1980–2010 in eastern Iran for 5%, 50%, and 95% risk levels of data. The results showed that the MCETA changed considerably the slope values of 5% and 95% risk levels of data compared to CETA specially for Semnan from 3.65 to −0.55 (for 5%), and from 5.80 to 7.06 (for 95%), as well as Zahedan from −1.80 to −0.59 (for 5%) and from −1.87 to −0.95 (for 95%). Moreover, the slope of 50% in MCETA for almost all stations was lower than that of the M−K test. The MCETA also provides a slope range for each risk level of data that implies the reliability of slopes and improves the test flexibility.
Keywords
, CETA Extreme events Iran Mann, Kendall Spring rainfall Trend analysis@article{paperid:1102572,
author = {Modaresi, Fereshteh and ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی and زهره جوانشیری and Sardarian Bajgiran, Iman},
title = {Modified Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (MCETA) for meteorological time series},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
year = {2025},
volume = {656},
number = {1},
month = {August},
issn = {0022-1694},
pages = {1--14},
numpages = {13},
keywords = {CETA
Extreme events
Iran
Mann-Kendall
Spring rainfall
Trend analysis},
}
%0 Journal Article
%T Modified Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis (MCETA) for meteorological time series
%A Modaresi, Fereshteh
%A ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی
%A زهره جوانشیری
%A Sardarian Bajgiran, Iman
%J Journal of Hydrology
%@ 0022-1694
%D 2025