Climate change significantly influences species distribution patterns. Utilizing Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) in climate change research provides valuable insights into species–environment relationships and can inform conservation management decisions. We analyzed climate change effects on the geographic distribution of Tamarix dubia Bunge, an endemic species in the Irano-Turanian region, using ENM approaches. We modeled the current and future suitable areas for T. dubia using the Maxent algorithm under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2- 4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2041–2060. The results revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) and precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16) were determined to be the most important explanatory climatic variables affecting T. dubia distribution. Under both future scenarios, we predicted a decrease in the suitable habitat range of T. dubia in the period 2041–2060. Moreover, a relatively high loss of suitability was anticipated in the actual ranges of species. The results indicated that the distribution of T. dubia, a drought-tolerant plant species, is likely to be affected significantly by climate change. This study supports future management plans for T. dubia and provides insights into the impacts of climate change on endemic species in arid and semi-arid regions, which are valuable for understanding distribution patterns and informing future research in the Irano-Turanian region.

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