Saffron (Crocus sativus L.) is an ideal crop for arid and semiarid regions due to its low water requirement and high economic value. This study involves calibration and validation of the Hydrus-1D model in order to explore the influence of climate change on saffron corm production. The research was carried out during the 2021–2022 and 2022–2023 growing seasons, focusing on 2-year-old and 3-year-old saffron, respectively, during which high-resolution in situ data were measured for soil water content, salinity, and soil temperature. Results showed that Hydrus-1D accurately simulated soil water content and temperature over two growing seasons. The root mean square error of simulations for soil water content and soil temperature was 0.034 cm3/cm3, 1.43˚C, and 0.027 cm3/cm3, 1.54˚C for the first and second growing seasons, respectively. However, the model provided an acceptable simulation of soil salinity in the first season. As Hydrus-1D does not inherently account for aboveground crop simulation, a new module based on the hybrid grey wolf optimizer and trust region algorithm was integrated to Hydrus-1D to simulate the saffron corm production. Using the new module with the three climate models including MRI-ESM2-0, ACCESS-CM2, and MIROC6 from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, the impact of climate change on saffron corm production in Mashhad-Iran during the near future (2025–2050) was evaluated. The results indicated that, during 2025–2050, climate change is not expected to negatively impact corm production in Mashhad-Iran, indicating the region’s sustainability for saffron cultivation.

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