Title : ( Prediction of peak and termination of novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Iran )
Authors: Sepehr RafieeNasab , AMIR POUYAN ZAHIRI , Ehsan Roohi ,
Full TextAbstract
The growth and development of COVID-19 transmission have significantly attracted the attention of many societies, particularly Iran, that have been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In this study, the known “Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR)” and some other mathematical approaches were used to investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran’s official data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data. The results offer important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as the realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time and other characteristics. Besides, the effectiveness of infection and immunization rates to the number of infected people and epidemic end time are reported. Finally, different suggestions for decreasing victims are offered.
Keywords
, Model-identification, Parameter identification, Statistical methods, Mathematical modeling of infection diseases, Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model, Contamination models.
@article{paperid:1080313,
author = {RafieeNasab, Sepehr and ZAHIRI, AMIR POUYAN and Roohi, Ehsan},
title = {Prediction of peak and termination of novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Iran},
journal = {International Journal of Modern Physics C},
year = {2020},
volume = {31},
number = {11},
month = {November},
issn = {0129-1831},
pages = {2050152--2050152},
numpages = {0},
keywords = {Model-identification; Parameter identification; Statistical methods; Mathematical modeling of infection diseases; Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model; Contamination models.},
}
%0 Journal Article
%T Prediction of peak and termination of novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Iran
%A RafieeNasab, Sepehr
%A ZAHIRI, AMIR POUYAN
%A Roohi, Ehsan
%J International Journal of Modern Physics C
%@ 0129-1831
%D 2020
