Systems thinking and attention to the relationships between a system’s variables on all spatial and temporal scales is an effective strategy in biological conservation and wildlife management. This study presents a case in a sensitive ecosystem to show how the future state of the jungle cat as an umbrella species depends on local, national, and international components. To this aim, all variables affecting the state of jungle cat were identified by an expert panel. Cross-impact analysis was applied to the identified variables in two stages using MICMAC, followed by Kane’s simulation (KSIM). The MICMAC method was used to detect the most important variables (i.e., variables with more influence and less dependency), and forecasting the future state of jungle cat was implemented by KSIM on variables screened by MICMAC. MICMAC showed that among the 22 identified variables, climate change, increased construction of dams in Afghanistan, water scarcity, and decline of agricultural lands under cultivation were the most important variables for management of jungle cat. KSIM showed declining trends for all variables in the future. Therefore, the predicted decreasing trend will continue as long as management remains unchanged on the local, national, and international scales.

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