International Journal of Operational Research, Volume (1), No (1), Year (2021-1) , Pages (1-26)

Title : ( A new stochastic model in emergency location problem )

Authors: farshid esmaeili kakhki , Zahra Naji Azimi , Alireza Pooya , Ahmad Tavakkoli ,

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We propose a new hybrid approach to solve the emergency location problem with stochastic demand. The new method incorporates GIS, system dynamics, Coburn and Spence model, stochastic programming and Monte Carlo simulation. In the proposed method, first, candidate places are extracted using GIS. Since in this paper demand is considered as a stochastic parameter depending on different scenarios of earthquake, in the next step a combination of the system dynamic model and the Coburn and Spence casualty estimation method is used to estimate this parameter. Next, proposing a stochastic location-allocation model, the demand is assigned to candidate places and finally, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to solve the introduced problem. The results of this hybrid model show that if the south fault of Mashhad is activated in the greatest severity, it has the highest possible casualties, in which more than 45 percent of the residents will lose their lives.


, Emergency location, Two-stage stochastic programming, System dynamics, Monte Carlo Simulation, Coburn and Spence model, GIS.
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author = {Esmaeili Kakhki, Farshid and Naji Azimi, Zahra and Pooya, Alireza and Tavakkoli, Ahmad},
title = {A new stochastic model in emergency location problem},
journal = {International Journal of Operational Research},
year = {2021},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
month = {January},
issn = {1745-7645},
pages = {1--26},
numpages = {25},
keywords = {Emergency location; Two-stage stochastic programming; System dynamics; Monte Carlo Simulation; Coburn and Spence model; GIS.},


%0 Journal Article
%T A new stochastic model in emergency location problem
%A Esmaeili Kakhki, Farshid
%A Naji Azimi, Zahra
%A Pooya, Alireza
%A Tavakkoli, Ahmad
%J International Journal of Operational Research
%@ 1745-7645
%D 2021