International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, Year (2023-10)

Title : ( Road traffic mortality in Iran: longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020 )

Authors: Milad Delavary Foroutaghe , Amir hossein Kalantari , Abolfazl Mohamadzadeh Moghaddam , Vahid Fakoor , Martin lavalliere , Felix Wilhelm siebert ,

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Abstract

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran’s Road Safety Strategic Plan.

Keywords

Road traffic fatalities; interrupted time series analysis; change point detection; SARIMAroad; safety policy
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@article{paperid:1096152,
author = {Delavary Foroutaghe, Milad and امیر حسین کلانتری and Mohamadzadeh Moghaddam, Abolfazl and Fakoor, Vahid and مارتین لاوالیر and فلیکس ویلیام سیبرت},
title = {Road traffic mortality in Iran: longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020},
journal = {International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion},
year = {2023},
month = {October},
issn = {1745-7300},
keywords = {Road traffic fatalities; interrupted time series analysis; change point detection; SARIMAroad; safety policy},
}

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%0 Journal Article
%T Road traffic mortality in Iran: longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020
%A Delavary Foroutaghe, Milad
%A امیر حسین کلانتری
%A Mohamadzadeh Moghaddam, Abolfazl
%A Fakoor, Vahid
%A مارتین لاوالیر
%A فلیکس ویلیام سیبرت
%J International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
%@ 1745-7300
%D 2023

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