As the second-largest city in Iran, Mashhad has a rich history in the gold industry. Mashhad’s gold and jewellery innovation ecosystem (MGJIE) is now at a stage of decline, and renewal or sharp decline cycles lie ahead. This article explores these two scenarios and their implications for the innovation ecosystems of this industry. The first objective is to imagine the future of the MGJIE using a normative approach and formulate policies to realize an optimistic future. The second objective is to investigate the pessimistic scenario and its implications for the ecosystem. The normative scenarios are created for a 2032 horizon using the back casting method. With regard to the second objective, the exploratory approach is used for the 2047 horizon. In both objectives, 46 questionnaires and fifteen interviews are used. In the normative scenario, nine drivers are identified. In the exploratory approach, three scenarios are formulated, while in the last scenario, with the occurrence of four steps of the renewal plan, improving the performance of the ecosystem is guaranteed. Innovation is a by-product of scenario thinking. The combined application of innovation ecosystem and scenario planning in the jewellery industry has not previously been the focus of research in Iran or other countries.

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