Journal of Hydroinformatics, ( ISI ), Volume (26), No (12), Year (2024-12) , Pages (3207-3223)

Title : ( Intercomparison of machine learning methods for statistical downscaling of daily temperature under CMIP6 scenarios: a case study from Iran )

Authors: Mohammadreza Goodarzi , Zaynab Hashemipour , Amir Saremi , Majid Niazkar ,

Citation: BibTeX | EndNote

Abstract

General Circulation Models (GCMs) represent a contemporary and advanced tool designed to simulate the response of climate systems to alterations in greenhouse gas levels. Increasing spatial resolutions of the outputs of GCMs on a regional scale requires a downscaling process. This study applied six Machine Learning (ML) models, named decision tree regression (DTR), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural networks (ANN), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Stochastic Gradient Descent Regressor (SGDRegressor), to downscale daily temperature data from CMIP6 models in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Iran. Observations from Nazmakan station were used for training (1995 -2009) and testing (2009 -2015). In addition, future temperature projections during 2015 -2045 were made under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Results showed that LightGBM and KNN developed the most reliable results. Mann-Kendall\\\\\\\'s analysis confirmed a significant upward trend, predicting cooler summers and warmer winters. The predicted data was also validated against observations from the period 2015 -2022. This study highlights the strengths and limitations of nonlinear ML techniques and emphasizes the need for further research to enhance predictive accuracy and spatial resolution in statistical downscaling.

Keywords

, MIP6, downscaling, general circulation model, machine learning, temperature
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@article{paperid:1100981,
author = {Goodarzi, Mohammadreza and زینب هاشمی پور and امیر صارمی and مجید نیازکار},
title = {Intercomparison of machine learning methods for statistical downscaling of daily temperature under CMIP6 scenarios: a case study from Iran},
journal = {Journal of Hydroinformatics},
year = {2024},
volume = {26},
number = {12},
month = {December},
issn = {1464-7141},
pages = {3207--3223},
numpages = {16},
keywords = {MIP6; downscaling; general circulation model; machine learning; temperature},
}

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%0 Journal Article
%T Intercomparison of machine learning methods for statistical downscaling of daily temperature under CMIP6 scenarios: a case study from Iran
%A Goodarzi, Mohammadreza
%A زینب هاشمی پور
%A امیر صارمی
%A مجید نیازکار
%J Journal of Hydroinformatics
%@ 1464-7141
%D 2024

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