Iran is developing an Agricultural Knowledge–Based Economy through suc- cessful research to enhance productivity with the help of technology. This ini- tiative responds to climate change, resource scarcity, sanctions, and more chal- lenges. Applied approaches like wheat breeding programs are being implemented to improve production and food security. The present study introduces an innova- tive approach by examining the impact of knowledge derived from wheat breeding research outcomes, considered an intangible input, on wheat production. It measures the shift in the supply curve and changes in social welfare, providing an economic evaluation of wheat production policies based on this knowledge. Evaluating its performance in wheat breeding requires assessing investment returns using econo- metric models. The results show that growing ten selected irrigated wheat varie- ties—Alvand, Shiroudi, Chamran, Pishtaz, Pishgaman, Morvarid, Mihan, Gonbad, Sirvan, and Chamran 2—yields significant benefits during 1996–2018, shifting the supply curve of irrigated wheat to the right by 19.20%. Additionally, the net present value of the wheat breeding program under this policy is positive at discount rates between 10 and 20%, indicating its profitability. The benefit–cost ratio results con- firm that the initiative is profitable at these discount rates. The internal rate of return for the program, considering price elasticities ranging from − 0.1 to − 0.9, has been calculated as 27.67, 25.87, 25.21, 24.86, 24.65, 24.51, 24, 24.32, and 24.26%.

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