Climate change, as one of the prominent consequences of global warming, has intensified in recent years due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Iran, being located in the dry belt of the world, exhibits significant vulnerability to these changes. This research aims to investigate the trend of climate change in Iranian tourism target villages and analyze the impact of spatial factors on these changes. The research method is descriptive-analytic. In examining the geographical factors affecting climate change in 504 tourism target villages, temperature was considered as the dependent variable and seven independent variables including four natural factors (latitude, altitude, distance from water sources, and normalized difference vegetation index) and three anthropogenic factors (greenhouse gas emissions, dominant land use, and urbanization processes) were considered. Data on location-dependent geographic factors were obtained from reputable international data sources such as the EOS Project Science Office, The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), NASA Earth Database, and the Iranian Mapping Organization. For this purpose, annual temperature data over a 30-year period (1991–2020) from 144 meteorological stations adjacent to the target villages were analyzed. The results of the Modified Mann Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and Pettitt tests indicate significant changes in Iran’s temperature pattern over the last three decades. The surveys showed that 83% of the stations studied experienced an increase in temperature and 17% experienced a decrease in temperature. Rising temperatures have various implications for rural tourism; however, the consequences of climate change are not always directly negative. The results of multivariate regression in tourism target villages showed that greenhouse gas factors (with a beta coefficient of 281.8), vegetation cover index (-1.462), land use including shrubland with a coefficient of 1.113, residential areas with a coefficient of -0.699, latitude (-0.9405), altitude (-0.00079), and distance from water sources (0.0000076) had a significant effect on temperature. These findings highlight the importance of adopting adaptive strategies tailored to the specific climatic conditions of tourism target villages.

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