Considering that the problem of non-payment on time and default of facilities in the banking system has been increasing in recent years and the above issue causes credit risk in the banking system, Therefore, in order to manage credit risk and select customers with lower risk, it is necessary to pay attention to the factors that increase the probability of default. In this study, seven characteristics of borrowers in four groups, which are the group of timely payers of facilities, the group with past due facilities, the group with deferred facilities and the group with doubtful facilities have been examined. In this regard, the sequential logit model has been used. The results of the sequential logit model show that increasing interest and penalties for defaulting facilities reduces the probability of timely payment of facilities and decreasing profts and penalties for defaulting facilities increases the probability of timely payment of facilities. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to improve the situation of banks’ claims, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy, at the same time as reducing inflation, reduce the facility rate in order to reduce the bank’s overdue claims.

Keywords