Lamb liver is nutritionally valuable and sometimes consumed raw; however, the growth dynamics and exposure risk of Salmonella in this matrix are poorly quantified. This study generates matrix-specific evidence to inform processing controls and consumer safety. Isothermal growth experiments at 10–37 ◦C were used to fit Baranyi primary models. The temperature dependence of the lag phase and maximum specific growth rate (μmax) was characterized using Davey and square-root secondary relations and validated against independent data and DMFit outputs. The validated models were integrated into a modular quantitative microbial risk assessment representing evisceration handling, chilling, transport, retail and consumer stages. Growth modeling indicated rapid proliferation potential at permissive temperatures and short lag behavior in this nutrient-rich matrix, with μmax rising from 0.02 to 0.79 log CFU/g/h and lag phase shortening from 16.9 to 1.4 h over 10–37 ◦C. Under the baseline raw consumption scenario, the mean probability of illness per serving was 0.0217, focal prevalence at evisceration was 0.164, and the mean final concentration at retail was 0.31 log CFU/g, indicating that risk is driven primarily by focal contamination introduced during evisceration/handling rather than by widespread downstream growth. Scenario analysis showed that full cooking reduced risk to near zero, contact reduction measures substantially lowered residual risk, and abattoir freezing provided only partial mitigation. Number of effective contacts dominated output variance with a Spearman rho of 0.89. The results demonstrate substantial risk associated with raw lamb liver and support prioritizing elimination of raw consumption, reduction of contact during evisceration and strengthened consumer education.

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